It is expected that Tony Blair will stand down soon. It won’t be before the local elections in May and his tenth year anniversary. The local elections will be a disaster for the Labour party, (that’s their prediction not mine), and by May Iraq will probably be in the midst of full on civil war. What a note to leave on?
We will of course all be driven insane by the endless conjecture as to exactly when he will go and what GB will do when he takes over in May, will he or wont he call a honeymoon election? Or will he wait the three years?
My guess, GB will call an election almost immediately (watch me be horribly wrong!). I am only basing this opinion on what I know of him and how I would react if I were in his shoes because, let’s face it, that is as about as scientific as it gets!
He is a proud man. I cannot believe he will want to be PM with another PM’s Mandate. He will not be able to govern comfortably and with confidence without his own personal endorsement from the people based on his campaign, record, reputation and merit.
I would imagine that when you are making huge decisions clarity of thought is essential – would he feel that TB was sat on his shoulder throughout every decision he made? And would it not be the case that the media will constantly hark back to the far more image / camera friendly TB to ask his opinion on every decision he makes?
I personally can’t abide the thought of all-women short lists for candidates – I would never be able to hold my head up if I had been selected on anything other than my own merit - it’s the same logic.
We saw the amount of publicity David Cameron received after he became leader. It gave him a honeymoon bounce in the polls, GB will have the same honeymoon and the same bounce. He will also inherit an NHS in a state of collapse and a million children failing in our schools. The list of chaos and failures goes on and on, the total mismanagement of the war in Iraq being just one.
Tough call, huge odds, big risk, but I think he will take it: before the popularity surge ebbs away, before the media stop focusing on the new leader and get back to Iraq and the record of failure and before he has to raise taxes (again)….. But that’s a different story.